September: five numbers that show where your year is heading
September is the first month of the year when you can draw a real conclusion. Eight months closed, four ahead.
It is also a month of deadlines. Some decisions available to you in September are no longer available in December. The most important one expires on 30 September and it is the fifth item on this list.
Five numbers are enough, on one condition: that they are calculated correctly and read correctly.
1. The revenue variance for the eight months
Formula: revenue from January to August 2026 against the same period in 2025. If you have a budget, compare against that instead.
Most small and medium businesses do not have one. Comparing against last year is the minimum and it is not a bad starting point. It needs a second number beside it, though: what share of annual turnover the eight months accounted for in previous years. In a seasonal business the answer is "almost all of it". So an eight month period that is 5% down will not be recovered, because the remaining four months do not carry the volume to cover it.
Watch the difference between nominal and real growth. Turnover up 4% with your own prices up 3% means volume is flat.
2. Gross profit margin
Formula: sales minus cost of goods sold, divided by sales. Compare eight months against eight months, in percentage points.
The classic risk is rising turnover with a shrinking margin:
- 2025: turnover 800,000 euro, margin 32%, gross profit 256,000 euro.
- 2026: turnover 900,000 euro, margin 27%, gross profit 243,000 euro.
Turnover rose 12.5% and you earned 13,000 euro less. Turnover without the margin next to it is a misleading number.
A drop of two points or more needs an explanation, because each cause has a different remedy. Did purchase costs rise? That is a pricing policy issue. Did the sales mix shift toward low margin products? That is a commercial targeting issue. Did discounts increase to hold volume? Then you are buying turnover with profit.
Calculate it by category as well, not only in total. The average hides the lines that sell at a loss.
3. The cash forecast through December
Today's bank balance is not an indicator. The indicator is a monthly forecast covering the four months that remain.
The outflows for the rest of 2026 include:
- Payroll and social security contributions, plus the statutory Christmas bonus, payable by 21 December.
- Income tax instalments. Those who opted for the eight instalments, the first due on 31 July, have four more falling within 2026.
- VAT, ENFIA property tax, loan and leasing instalments, and any active payment arrangements.
- Inventory purchases for the holiday season, which come weeks ahead of the related collections.
Profitability does not pay obligations. Liquidity does, and the two can move in opposite directions for months.
You have a problem in any month with a negative projected balance, or when cash covers less than one month of operating expenses. In September you still have three months to manage it. In December you do not.
4. Days sales outstanding
Formula: receivables at 31 August, divided by sales for the eight months, multiplied by 243 days.
The number only means something when you compare it against your own agreed payment terms. You invoice at 30 days and the indicator comes out at 75? You have 45 days of leakage that you never agreed with anyone.
Translate it into euro, because that is how it becomes a decision. On annual turnover of 1.2 million, each day of the indicator is worth roughly 3,300 euro. Ten days of improvement release 33,000 euro, with no borrowing and no new sale.
Do not stop at the average. Break receivables into ageing buckets: up to 30, 31 to 60, 61 to 90, and over 90 days. Usually one or two customers generate half the delay. At that point the problem is not your collections process. It is a commercial decision.
The indicator has a continuation. Add days of inventory, subtract days payable to suppliers, and you see how many days you are financing your own operation. That is what determines the working capital you need.
5. The tax charge for the year, and the 30 September deadline
Start from the result for the eight months. Add your estimate for the final four. Apply the tax adjustments for non deductible expenses and then the rate, 22% for legal entities. On top of that tax sits next year's advance payment: 80% for legal entities, 55% for sole proprietorships, halved during the first years of operation.
The reason this calculation belongs in September rather than December is not cash preparation. It is a deadline.
When income falls by more than 25% against the previous year, Greek law allows a request to the tax office for a reduction of the advance payment already assessed. The application is filed by the end of September and covers only the instalments that have not yet fallen due. This is provided by article 70 of Law 4172/2013, which applies to legal entities as well.
This option carries a cost and does not suit every case. The application is accompanied by supporting evidence subject to verification by the tax office, which announces the outcome within three months. In practice, you are opening your own books. Where the decline is real and documented, that is not an issue. Where it is marginal, or rests on an estimate for the final four months, the application costs more than it saves.
So the substantive point is not whether you file the application. It is that the decision requires a calculation within September and documentation that holds up under verification. Anyone running the calculation in November is not deciding anything, because the option has already closed.
The reverse holds too. If the year is running ahead of the previous one, you have three months for decisions that legitimately affect the result of the financial year: the timing of investments and depreciation, write offs, and inventory management. By December those options have narrowed.
What the five numbers have in common
None of them requires new software or a new department. All five come out of data your business already produces. They only need to be calculated, compared against a baseline, and read by someone who knows what the value means. That is the difference between keeping books and managing with data.
| This article intends to inform the reader and in no way substitutes the specialized consulting services. For more information, please contact MDC Stiakakis SA |